Short-term downstream demand for mild steel tube is well, but in the current economic environment, industrial price pressure is always there, with the actual demand for steel in the fourth quarter of the seasonal decline, the outlook for steel prices is not optimistic. Against the backdrop of easing global risk aversion, industrial prices rebounded in September, led by the black sector, with the main rebar 2001 contract up 3.58%. Around the National Day steel price volatility significantly intensified, the market more serious differences between short and long.Although with the help of environmental protection policies, we believe that in the current economic environment, the pressure of industrial prices always exists and the outlook for steel prices is not optimistic.
New data show China's economy is still showing greater resilience, but weakness of structural steel pipe is evident in developed economies overseas.On October 2nd, released a new PMI for the US manufacturing sector of 47.8, the lowest in nearly a decade and well below market expectations. On October 7, German manufacturing orders fell 0.6 percent month-on-month in August after a quarter-on-quarter revision, and were expected to fall 0.3 percent. The Australian federal reserve (the third rate cut of the year) and the central bank of India (the fifth cut of the year) announced further rate cuts during the National Day period. Although the market expected future countries still will do their best through monetary and fiscal policy to stimulate economic recovery, but the global economy is slowly fell to nearly 10 years low, which has become a fact and this will lead to hot dipped galvanized steel pipe price rise in a longer period of time in the future of steam.
From the point of view of drive, although macro drive downward, rebar short-term industry drive is undoubtedly upward. At present, the accelerated destocking of rebar, limited output release and continuous record high apparent demand are in sharp contrast to the continuous accumulation of social inventory.Therefore, we believe that there is a mismatch between supply and demand of square steel pipe in this year's steel peak season, and the mismatch between supply and demand is the focus of the capital game.The short's strength comes from the supply side and the long's strength comes from the demand side. According to the inventory data released by Mysteel on October 7, the overall National Day holiday inventory level is basically the same as that of last year. Under the circumstance of the production limit of eleven strong companies, the decline of apparent demand is very obvious.
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Post time: Nov-17-2020
