According to the statistics, the total PMI for February 2019 was 48.7, up by 2.2 percentage points from the previous month.To sum up, affected by the factors of double holidays, the sales volume of rectangular hollow section in February was reduced. Besides, winter storage operation was rational and prudent. In addition, the inventory increased but the overall risk was controllable; the expectation was improved, and the demand boom of circulation market of steel in March remained cautiously optimistic.
The steel market started the New Year cautiously, with the sales price index rising for three consecutive months, rising to 51.8 this month, 2.9 percentage points higher than the previous month. However, due to the influence of double holidays, the actual trading time of steel market in February was limited, and the overall market sales as well as downstream procurement showed a shrinking trend. The index of sales volume and orders dropped to 41.4 and 41.7 respectively, down 1.4 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The inventory aspect is the focus this month. The inventory index of steel industry rose to 56.3 in February, up 8.2 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the national steel social inventory of hot rolled round steel pipe in 29 key cities was 14.2602 million tons, an increase of 44.64 percent. Compared with the same period last year, during the Spring Festival, the increment of accumulative stock is higher than that of last year, but the total stock is slightly lower than that of last year. In terms of the size of sample enterprises, the inventory index of large steel trade increased by 15 percentage points this month. According to the leading data, the judgment index and the purchasing intention index of China steel tube manufacturers both rose to 53.0 and 52.0 in February, up 6.0 and 6.3 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
For march, we think the supply and demand situation of steel market is better than expected and the overall environment is better than the same period last year. On the supply side, the direction of restriction policy of environmental protection is weakened and the production status of steel mills is stronger than last year. Crude steel production is expected to remain at the end of last year in January and February, with the overall supply under control. Based on the current inventory level for structural steel pipe, we believe that the social inventory peak of this year is close to that of last year.
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Post time: Sep-17-2019
